Update Country Report Maldives 20 Mar 2020

Event

During March 13th-19th, 22 Asian countries recorded an acceleration in coronavirus infection compared with the previous week. Malaysia, Australia and Pakistan recorded the largest increases, while China and South Korea reduced the growth in cases.

Analysis

The risk of infection by international travellers has prompted policymakers across Asia to quarantine arrivals. We expect these controls to be tightened further in the coming weeks, following the decision by authorities in Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Taiwan to ban foreign visitors temporarily.

China reported no domestic transmissions of the coronavirus in the past week, but the number of infected arrivals increased by 140, prompting the national capital, Beijing, to enforce a two-week quarantine for all visitors on March 15th.

Hong Kong and Singapore are now directing international arrivals to observe a two-week quarantine period. India, Japan, Nepal and Vietnam require visitors from high-risk countries to self-isolate and have stopped issuing tourism visas. Thailand still allows the entry of visitors who present a health certificate. Myanmar has closed land crossings for foreign nationals, but still permits entry via airports. We expect these requirements to tighten as the number of infections rises.

Religious events continue to generate new clusters, prompting most governments in Asia to tighten controls on the movement of people. A religious gathering in Malaysia's capital, Kuala Lumpur, on February 27th-March 1st was attended by 16,000 people, who have since spread the coronavirus within Malaysia and to Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia and Singapore. Malaysia subsequently announced a nationwide "shutdown" from March 18th to March 31st, and Indonesia declared a state of national emergency until May 29th. We believe that Indonesia will step up movement restrictions during Ramadan, which begins on April 23rd.

Cases rose by 434 in Pakistan over the past seven days, having spread from neighbouring Iran; quarantine camps set up in Balochistan province have become hotbeds for transmission. The Pakistani government closed the border on March 16th, but crossings have reportedly continued. Pakistan has declared that the spread of the coronavirus is inevitable and that closing down cities would increase the risk of starvation for low-income groups.

Impact on the forecast

We plan to revise down further our real GDP growth forecasts across Asia, as restrictions on movement will negatively affect economic growth, even if they slow infection. In countries like Pakistan, which are unlikely to shut down activity, the virus will peak more quickly, but weak healthcare capacity will result in a higher fatality rate.