Update Country Report Maldives 13 Mar 2020

Event

During March 6th-12th countries in North-east Asia made progress in reducing the number of new cases of the novel coronavirus. However, the risk of large-scale outbreaks in South Asia and South-east Asia has risen.

Analysis

Over the past seven days China registered 315 new cases (outside Hubei province, the source of the virus), down from 1,870 cases the previous week. The government's policy priority has now shifted to restarting economic activity. We expect this to lead to new outbreaks in coastal regions in April, after migrant workers return to work.

New cases in South Korea, which has the highest total number of cases outside China, fell to 1,781 during the seven-day period, down from 4,322 a week earlier. The government's large-scale testing has enabled it to trace patients quickly without implementing restrictions on movement. This is allowing a gradual return to work.

New cases in Taiwan dropped to just five in the past seven days, from 12 the week before. Taiwan has only recorded 49 infections so far, despite its proximity to China. The government formed a response command centre in late January, before the first case was reported, and was quick to implement border controls.

Hong Kong and Singapore recorded a rise in new cases over the past week. These regions are likely to experience sporadic spikes in the number of infections, given that their governments will keep borders open because of their reliance on foreign trade. However, tracing and isolating patients will help to contain new outbreaks, and robust healthcare systems will play to their advantage.

We believe that South Asia faces the highest risk of new outbreaks. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan recorded a rise in infections during March 6th-12th. The true number of cases is also likely to be higher than official data suggest, owing to inadequate detection mechanisms. Densely populated urban areas are hotbeds for transmission, making the six cases in India's capital, Delhi, a particular cause for concern. South Asian countries were also some of the lowest ranked in Asia for epidemic preparedness in the 2019 Global Health Security Index, owing to weak healthcare systems.

Impact on the forecast

We have revised down our real GDP growth forecasts for Asia in 2020. Economic disruption will persist throughout the year because of weak global demand, subdued investor and consumer sentiment, labour shortages and logistical disruption. We do not expect a commercial vaccine to become available until end-2021.