Event
On February 1st the Maldives was officially readmitted to the Commonwealth as its 54th member, following the country's departure from the association in October 2016.
Analysis
The former president, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom (2013-18), withdrew the Maldives from the Commonwealth after the association had threatened to suspend the country over his government's failure to undertake democratic reforms and curtail human rights abuses. Restoring and upholding democratic ideals was one of the key election promises made by the current president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, which he has fulfilled to an extent.
In line with this pledge, Mr Solih submitted a request to rejoin the Commonwealth in December 2018, less than a month after being sworn in as president. The Commonwealth concluded in its country assessment that the Maldives is making steady progress in strengthening democratic processes.
Although all of the Commonwealth's member nations backed the Maldives in its bid for readmission, India was among its strongest supporters and had called for the expedition of the process on several occasions. Bilateral ties between the Maldives and India have strengthened substantially under Mr Solih's presidency. The inclusion of the Maldives in the Commonwealth will help the country to engage more closely with the wider international community and to deepen diplomatic ties, particularly with nations beyond the South Asia region. However, India will remain its closest international partner during the forecast period and will continue to influence the country's foreign policy.
Impact on the forecast
We will highlight in our next outlook that the readmission of the Maldives into the Commonwealth will boost the government's efforts to showcase the country as a progressive and stable democratic player on the international scene. This will enable the Maldives to forge deeper diplomatic ties with other major democracies, including Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK.