Update Country Report Maldives 31 Jan 2020

Event

On January 30th the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared that the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) that originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan met its criteria for classification as a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC).

Analysis

The PHEIC designation is reserved for extraordinary events that require a WHO-led co-ordinated international response. This decision was issued out of concern that certain countries lack health systems that are capable of responding effectively to the outbreak (with the WHO having previously expressed confidence in China's ability to handle the outbreak domestically). This was the sixth time that the WHO has issued such a declaration since the designation was introduced in 2005.

This response should help to contain the spread of the disease both inside and outside China. However, the economic disruption caused by the designation will probably be severe. Although the WHO has recommended against any travel or trade restrictions based on the current information available, these guidelines are not legally binding. As a result, The Economist Intelligence Unit expects other countries nevertheless to adopt restrictive measures based on the growing perception that the viral outbreak is worsening. The designation already follows decisions by a number of airlines to suspend flights to China, while other places-such as Taiwan and Hong Kong-have issued a travel ban on Chinese tourists from Wuhan. On January 30th the US issued a "do not travel" advisory to China, while Russia closed its land border with the country.

These restrictions could have a chilling effect on the global economy. The application of international trade or travel restrictions would intensify this effect, particularly as global markets are still recovering from the disruption brought about by the US-China trade war. Recourse to challenge any such restrictions, through channels such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO), has also largely been nullified by the recent collapse of the WTO's appellate body. This impact, however, will depend on how long the PHEIC designation remains in effect. Although the WHO will review it every three months, the timelines of previous PHEIC incidents have varied significantly, ranging from nine months (Zika) to almost two years (West African Ebola).