Update Country Report Maldives 10 Apr 2020

Event

From April 3rd-9th, 12 countries in Asia saw a pickup in new coronavirus (Covid-19) infections, down from 16 countries the previous week, with the largest increases seen in Japan and India.

Analysis

The containment measures that governments put in place in late March began to take effect on April 3rd-9th, with 19 countries in the region reporting less new coronavirus infections than in the previous seven days. This is in line with our forecast that outbreaks will begin to stabilise in Asia in mid-April, based on the observation that controls began to show positive results after around three weeks in China and South Korea-the first countries globally to face large-scale outbreaks.

Authorities have realised the difficulty of managing the virus without some form of lockdown. Singapore, which had previously aimed to maintain normal economic activity with rapid testing and tracing, was forced to announce a month-long lockdown from April 7th. South Korea, which had been striving to keep its borders open, announced a ban on non-essential travel by foreign nationals on April 8th. Japan also had to rethink its strategy after a spike in cases, declaring a month-long state of emergency on April 7th.

Governments are likely to keep containment measures in place even after infection growth plateaus, given the risk of new clusters emerging without a treatment or vaccine-and to ensure public confidence in the handling of the crisis. China did not lift its stay-at-home orders in Wuhan, the source of the virus in central Hubei province, until domestic transmissions had fallen to zero, and the ban on people leaving the city was not lifted until April 8th, over two months after it was put in place.

Other governments may not wait two months to relax shutdowns, especially if the damage to the economy becomes too great. The health of the banking sector may be an important indicator to monitor in this regard. Countries that cannot offer much social support, like India, may consider relaxing shutdowns amid rising unemployment; India's unemployment rate rose to 23.4% at the start of April, up from 8.4% in mid-March, according to an unofficial survey by a local think-tank. However, moves to lower restrictions may meet opposition from certain states.

Impact on the forecast

We maintain our forecast that growth in new coronavirus infections will begin to stabilise in most countries in Asia in mid-April, although governments are likely to maintain lockdowns for longer than this.