Update Country Report Maldives 03 Apr 2020

• The Economist Intelligence Unit expects growth in coronavirus infections to stabilise in Asia around two weeks after governments implement containment measures.
• For most of the region, the situation can be expected to improve from around mid-April, based on the experience of China and South Korea.
• However, the actual results will depend on the nature of the measures and how effectively the authorities can enforce them.
• Meanwhile, new flare-ups in Singapore and Hong Kong indicate that the situation can deteriorate rapidly as soon as restrictions are relaxed.
• Once new patient numbers are brought down to manageable levels, the next question for Asia will be how to make a return to work possible, while maintaining effective epidemic prevention and control measures.
• Monitoring the success of China in this regard may influence other governments in the region when seeking to restart economic activity.

Between March 27th and April 2nd, 16 countries in Asia experienced an acceleration in the growth of coronavirus infections compared to the previous week, with the largest increases recorded in the Philippines and India. The situation stabilised in China, Taiwan and Bangladesh. Nearly all countries in Asia have now implemented a ban on foreign arrivals, which were the main source of new cases in the region in March. The majority are now several weeks into shutdowns on economic activity, or at least ramped-up social-distancing measures. Governments with more robust healthcare systems have tended to rely on testing, isolation and tracing, while those with relatively underdeveloped capacity have reverted to more blanket lockdowns.

Lessons to be learnt

Japan and Taiwan have managed to maintain relatively low incidence rates of the coronavirus, despite having recorded their first cases in January. In Japan's case, this may be a result of limited testing, but it may also be a result of common practice "social-distancing" measures, such a frequent hand-washing, bowing instead of shaking hands and a tendency to wear masks in public places. Taiwan's success can be attributed to its rapid response. The government began to screen arrivals from the Chinese city where the virus originated, Wuhan, as early as December 31st 2019. It then activated the Central Epidemic Command Centre on January 20th, before the first case had even been recorded. The centre carried out extensive tracing of cases and their contacts.

Even regions that initially suffered from runaway outbreaks have proved that they can be brought under control. China's Hubei province, for example, saw the trend line for new infections begin to flatten around February 14th, around three weeks after lockdowns were put in place. South Korea began to see the growth in new cases decelerate around March 8th, two and a half weeks after the authorities began to track the health of people who had recently travelled to Wuhan. South Korean companies also began to mass-produce test kits in early March.

Not so fast

Even once the spread of the coronavirus has been brought under control, the risk of infections flaring up again remains high. Singapore and Hong Kong have both been victims of this; cases have begun to rise rapidly since mid-March, mainly as a result of infected international arrivals. This prompted Singapore to announce a month of complete lockdown, apart from essential enterprises, on April 3rd. Meanwhile, Hong Kong has stepped up its social-distancing rules, which should stabilise the growth in infections in a few weeks' time.

Into the unknown

The question remains how long governments can maintain containment measures, and at what economic cost. The experiences of Singapore and Hong Kong suggest that infections are likely to flare up as soon as containment measures are relaxed, and restrictions are only buying healthcare systems time by keeping the number of patients at a manageable level. Governments are unlikely to relax controls completely, as such a move would probably spark criticism among the public-especially low-income and vulnerable groups. As a result, the next step will be for governments to figure out a strategy for restarting and maintaining economic activity, while at the same time keeping infections at manageable levels.

A new normal?

China is now entering the next stage. The government has been pushing businesses to resume operations since late February, and it will lift national travel restrictions on Wuhan on April 8th. However, at the same time, the authorities continue to rely on community-level governments to manage residential areas with temperature and identification checks, and health screening is still required to enter public spaces, workplaces and public transport. Companies should prepare for the eventuality that even once infections are brought under control in certain countries, economic and social activity is likely to remain curtailed in comparison with pre-outbreak levels. The timeline of the global outbreak is staggered, which means that it will be difficult for Asia to recover while the pandemic worsens in Europe and the US.