The government inherited significant external debt associated with the Maldives' infrastructure spending boom under Mr Yameen. The servicing of this debt is one of the prime reasons behind the nation's persistent budget deficits. Increased expenditure will be required in 2020 to offset the loss in revenue from tourism, owing to the restrictions imposed on foreign tourist arrivals to slow the spread of the virus. Moreover, a recession this year will suppress revenue collection, which will lead to an increase in the deficit. We expect the budget deficit to widen to the equivalent of 7.4% of GDP in 2020 from an estimated 5.4% in 2019. The shortfall in the budget will narrow in 2021, partly on account of higher government receipts as the economy stages a recovery.