Update Country Report Maldives 21 Jan 2021

Event

On January 20th the Maldives received a shipment of 100,000 doses of coronavirus (Covid-19) vaccine from India, in the form of grant assistance. The vaccine, branded locally as Covishield, has been developed by the University of Oxford and a drugmaker, AstraZeneca (both UK), and has been produced by the Serum Institute of India (SII).

Analysis

With each recipient requiring two doses, the shipment will inoculate around 50,000 people, equating to 9% of the Maldives' total population. The Maldivian government is reportedly also pursuing a commercial purchase of 300,000 doses from the SII. Preparations have begun in the country to launch the vaccination programme, but a date has not been set, as the Maldives Food and Drug Authority (MFDA) has yet to approve Covishield for emergency use. Nonetheless, the Health Protection Agency, an arm of the health ministry, has opened online registration for citizens (and work-permit holders) to be vaccinated. The government has also launched a vaccine awareness programme to reduce hesitancy among citizens and has announced that the vaccination will be given to them for free.

Upon approval by the MFDA, the first batch of Covishield will be used to inoculate priority groups such as frontline workers and the elderly. Large-scale immunisation of the general public will require additional supplies, which will probably be delivered in multiple shipments over a prolonged timeline. According to local media reports, the government has signed a supply agreement with AstraZeneca Singapore for 700,000 doses, but no supply schedule has been revealed.

The Maldives has also signed up for the Covid-19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX) Facility-a global initiative led by the World Health Organisation to subsidise vaccines for lower-income countries. COVAX is aiming to cover only around 3% of the population of recipient countries under the scheme in 2021, of the total promised quota of 20%, in order to spread access to vaccines to high-risk groups in as many countries and as quickly as possible.

Impact on the forecast

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the MFDA to approve Covishield for emergency use in the coming weeks and for the vaccine rollout to begin by the end of the first quarter. However, we do not expect mass vaccination (which we have set at 60% of the population) to be achieved before 2022, as the procurement of additional doses will probably be a protracted process. We expect further Indian support on the vaccine front, strengthening bilateral relations.