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Country Report Maldives April 2021
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HTMLUpdate Country Report Maldives 05 Feb 2021
COVAX announces initial vaccine supply plan
Event
On February 3rd the Covid-19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX) Facility, led by Gavi (the UN vaccine alliance), the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and the World Health Organisation (WHO), announced its interim distribution forecast of 337.2m vaccines.
Analysis
The plan aims for the 145 recipient lower- and lower-middle-income countries to be able to vaccinate 3.3% of their populations on average by mid-2021. The Economist Intelligence Unit calculates that the average is higher for Asia, however, at 5.9%. Some richer countries are self-paying members of the scheme.
Shipments will start in mid-February, with countries that have not yet started their vaccination programmes being priority recipients. Countries will receive vaccines in proportion to their population size. The next stage will be to vaccinate 20% of their populations by end-2021, although details of that phase have not yet been published.
| COVAX interim distribution forecast for Asia | |||||
| (doses by vaccine supplier) | |||||
| Participant | Oxford-AstraZeneca (licensed to Serum Institute of India) | Oxford-AstraZeneca | Pfizer-BioNTech | Total doses | % of population covered* |
| Afghanistan | 3,024,000 | - | - | 3,024,000 | 3.8 |
| Bangladesh | 12,792,000 | - | 12,792,000 | 3.8 | |
| Bhutan | 108,000 | - | 5,850 | 113,850 | 7.3 |
| Brunei | - | 100,800 | - | 100,800 | 11.5 |
| Cambodia | 1,296,000 | - | - | 1,296,000 | 3.8 |
| Fiji | - | 100,800 | - | 100,800 | 5.5 |
| India | 97,164,000 | - | - | 97,164,000 | 3.5 |
| Indonesia | - | 13,708,800 | - | 13,708,800 | 2.5 |
| Laos | 564,000 | - | - | 564,000 | 3.8 |
| Malaysia | - | 1,624,800 | - | 1,624,800 | 2.5 |
| Maldives | 108,000 | - | 5,850 | 113,850 | 10.4 |
| Mongolia | - | 163,200 | 25,740 | 188,940 | 2.8 |
| Myanmar | 4,224,000 | - | - | 4,224,000 | 3.9 |
| Nepal | 2,256,000 | - | - | 2,256,000 | 3.8 |
| New Zealand | - | 249,600 | - | 249,600 | 2.5 |
| North Korea | 1,992,000 | - | - | 1,992,000 | 3.9 |
| Pakistan | 17,160,000 | - | - | 17,160,000 | 3.8 |
| Papua New Guinea | 684,000 | - | - | 684,000 | 3.8 |
| Philippines | - | 5,500,800 | 117,000 | 5,617,800 | 2.5 |
| Samoa | - | 79,200 | - | 79,200 | 19.8 |
| Singapore | - | 288,000 | - | 288,000 | 2.5 |
| Solomon Islands | 108,000 | - | - | 108,000 | 7.7 |
| South Korea | - | 2,596,800 | 117,000 | 2,713,800 | 2.6 |
| Sri Lanka | 1,692,000 | - | - | 1,692,000 | 3.9 |
| Timor-Leste | - | 100,800 | - | 100,800 | 3.8 |
| Tonga | - | 43,200 | - | 43,200 | 19.6 |
| Vanuatu | - | 100,800 | - | 100,800 | 16.3 |
| Vietnam | - | 4,886,400 | - | 4,886,400 | 2.5 |
| Non-UN countries** | - | 1,303,200 | - | 1,303,200 | - |
| Total Asia | 143,172,000 | 30,847,200 | 271,440 | 174,290,640 | - |
| Sources: COVAX; The Economist Intelligence Unit. | |||||
| Note: This table shows countries that The Economist Intelligence Unit covers in Asia and is not an exhaustive list. * This assumes that governments use these vaccines in a two-dose programme.** Includes Taiwan. | |||||
The supplies include 240m doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine as licensed to the Serum Institute of India (SII); 96m doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford University vaccine produced elsewhere; and 1.2m doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The latter is the only vaccine to have received emergency-use approval from the WHO (in December 2020).
The distribution forecast is non-binding and subject to change. Downside risks include the possibility of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, which is still under review, not receiving approval. There could also be supply issues if there are manufacturing constraints, or if a participant country is deemed not ready. In addition, there could be regulatory and logistical delays.
The COVAX interim distribution plan will only provide enough vaccine to cover priority groups such as healthcare workers. Countries will need to expand their vaccination numbers dramatically in order to cover enough of their populations to reach herd immunity; we maintain that it will be difficult for many low- and lower-middle-income countries in Asia to achieve that within the next five years, because of supply constraints and limited numbers of healthcare workers (see timeline chart). Without vaccinating enough of the population to reach herd immunity, countries will remain vulnerable to future outbreaks. This will require governments to maintain some form of border controls, social distancing and lockdowns (if outbreaks are severe).
Impact on the forecast
We maintain our forecast that transformative immunisation levels-allowing most countries to remove mobility restrictions (or to avoid imposing them) and thus boosting consumer and investor confidence-will not begin to be achieved until 2022.
