Update Country Report Maldives 04 Mar 2021

Event

According to data published by Maldives Immigration (a government agency), 96,882 tourists visited Maldives in February, up from 92,103 in January. In year-on-year terms, however, this was still down by 35.3%.

Analysis

The number of tourists arriving in the Maldives continues to rise steadily and will support an economic recovery this year. The upward momentum recorded in February was driven by a strong pick-up in visitors arriving from India. Providing 24,905 tourist arrivals, India continued to be the top source of visitors to the archipelago, accounting for 26% of the monthly total. At 28,795, the number of visitors from Central Asia (Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan), which has in recent months been a major source of tourist arrivals, was 12% down from the previous month. However, this was partially offset by a stronger inflow of tourists from mainland Europe (led by Germany, Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Romania), as well as the US. The number of visitors from mainland China, which tends to soar during the Chinese New Year holiday, remained muted in February amid strict quarantine requirements upon return to that country.

We expect tourist arrivals in the Maldives to remain on an upward trajectory throughout 2021. Vaccination programmes in major tourism source markets will help to facilitate travel by easing lockdown and travel restrictions. The impressive rate at which the Maldives has so far conducted its coronavirus (Covid-19) vaccination drive, coupled with the government's commitment to vaccinate airport and resort staff as a priority, will further help to alleviate health and safety concerns among potential visitors, especially in comparison with competitor markets.

By March 3rd around 129,424 people in the Maldives had received the first injection of the two-dose vaccination. The country is expecting to receive further shipments of vaccines from AstraZeneca (UK/Sweden) and the World Health Organisation-led Covid -19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX) Facility this month, elevating the upside risk that it could achieve mass vaccination (which we have defined as 60% of the population) earlier than our current forecast of the first quarter of 2022.

Impact on the forecast

The latest data are in line with our expectations that the Maldivian economy will bounce back by 23.2% in 2021, underpinned by robust tourism earnings from a more than doubling of visitors compared with last year.