Update Country Report Maldives 17 Mar 2021

Event

On March 14th the Maldives Food and Drug Authority (MFDA) approved the importation and emergency use of two more coronavirus (Covid-19) vaccines: the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine (US/Germany) and one developed and produced by China National Pharmaceutical Group (Sinopharm, a Chinese state-owned enterprise) and the Beijing Institute of Biological Products.

Analysis

The Maldives began its vaccine rollout on February 1st, following the MFDA's approval of the Oxford-AstraZeneca (UK/Sweden) vaccine. By mid-March the country had received 212,000 doses of this vaccine, produced by the Serum Institute of India (SII), as assistance from the government of India and the World Health Organisation-led COVAX Facility.

According to the Health Protection Agency, 214,486 people (or 40% of the population) had received the first of the two-dose regime by March 16th. This suggests that the government started to administer the Sinopharm vaccine (of which it has procured 18,000 doses from undisclosed sources) promptly after its approval. The numbers suggest that the vaccination drive will probably have to be suspended until the next shipment of vaccines, which is likely to arrive in early April.

The government will also begin to administer the second dose of the vaccine in April, using 300,000 doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine under a commercial purchase order with the SII. It has also signed a separate purchase agreement with AstraZeneca for 700,000 doses, the details of which have not yet been disclosed. Meanwhile, the government of China has committed to donate another 200,000 doses of the Sinopharm vaccine to the Maldives. These procurements will be more than enough to cover the entire population of the country. Although they may not be necessary, the country is also eligible to receive more doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca and Pfizer-BioNtech vaccines under the COVAX Facility.

Temporary slowdowns due to supply delays notwithstanding, the impressive rate of inoculation achieved by the government and its procurement pipeline suggest that widespread vaccination (defined by The Economist Intelligence Unit as covering 60% of the population) will probably be achieved in the second half of 2021. The procurement of vaccines in bulk, rather than in smaller consignments over a protracted timeline (which is what we expect), presents an upside risk to this call, as it would allow the government to accelerate its inoculation programme.

Impact on the forecast

We now expect mass vaccination to be achieved in the third quarter of 2021, sooner than our previous forecast of early 2022.