The tourism sector, along with the services ecosystem, is the main driver of economic growth in the Maldives. This historically lopsided reliance on tourism earnings has taken a heavy toll on the local economy in the wake of the pandemic. We expect the government to continue with its initiatives to attract more tourists in 2021, such as international marketing roadshows and loyalty programmes. The government's efforts will be focused on supporting the country's economic recovery in 2021-22.

Achieving mass immunisation will be the priority this year. The government has so far approved three vaccines for emergency use, developed by Oxford University-AstraZeneca (UK/Sweden), Sinopharm (China) and Pfizer-BioNTech (US-Germany) respectively. By end-March, about 43% of the population had received the first of a two-dose regime. The government has begun vaccinating residents over the age of 18 and will start administering the second dose of the vaccine in April. It has also announced procurement plans for about 1m doses in the second quarter, under different purchase arrangements and grant assistance. Accounting for supply delays and smaller consignments delivered over a prolonged timeline, an average of 100,000 doses per month will be enough to maintain the current pace of inoculation. We expect 60% of the population to be vaccinated by the third quarter of 2021.

With its vaccination programme set to continue apace, the Maldives is well placed to welcome a significant number of tourists on "vaxication" (the first trip that people take after being vaccinated) during the peak tourist season of end-2021. In addition to welcoming vaccinated tourists, the Maldivian minister of tourism, Dr Abdulla Mausoom, has conveyed the government's plans to launch a 3V initiative-visit, vaccinate and vacation-to boost tourism activity. This drive will offer two vaccine doses to travellers, encouraging weeks-long stays in the country's resorts. The unique "one island, one resort" set-up of the country also allows for natural social distancing, which, coupled with vaccinated resort and airport staff, will help it to attract more cautious tourists.

Tackling corruption and the human rights abuses that spread under the previous administration will probably be on the back burner in 2021-22. Mr Solih's administration will seek to reform the judiciary to improve its effectiveness, but we believe that change will be slow, particularly on the issue of corruption.