Our core forecast remains that the MDP's firm control over the executive and legislature will aid its policy effectiveness during the forecast period. Mr Solih is committed to socioeconomic development and will want to prioritise it during his term. In October 2019 he unveiled the Strategic Action Plan 2019-23, which will serve as a guide for his government's policymaking as it seeks to achieve its development goals. Despite Mr Solih's desire to pursue reform measures, his ability to implement them will remain constrained by the presence of influential opposition figures, as well as the more urgent tasks of achieving mass immunisation against the coronavirus (Covid-19) and resuming tourism activity on the islands. That said, the MDP's political position will receive a boost from the imprisonment of Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom-Mr Solih's predecessor and one of his most formidable opponents, who is currently serving a five-year jail sentence after being convicted in a money-laundering case in November 2019.

The next presidential election is due in September 2023, and the next parliamentary election is due in early 2024. During the previous polls the absence of the exiled Mr Nasheed resulted in the elevation of Mr Solih as the presidential candidate for an MDP-led coalition against the then ruling PPM. We expect Mr Solih to seek re-election for a second term in 2023. However, his candidacy is likely to be challenged by Mr Nasheed, who would also be keen to return to power for a second time.