The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) to serve out its full term, which will expire in 2024. The MDP dominates the People's Majlis (parliament), with 65 of the 87 seats, and the main opposition Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) has just six. This has enabled the president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, to push the bulk of his government's policy agenda through parliament.

However, the MDP's rise to dominance in the 2019 legislative election has come at the expense of the Jumhooree Party (JP), a member of the ruling coalition and the country's third-largest party, which has been reduced to a relatively insignificant five seats. Although we believe that this has put the future of the coalition in jeopardy, we do not consider it to be a major threat to political stability. A break-up of the coalition would be unlikely to have any significant impact on the stability of the MDP-led government, given the JP's small legislative presence. Although Mr Solih has said that the coalition will remain in place, we believe that it could fall apart during our forecast period (2021-22). On March 1st parliament passed a motion of no confidence against the minister of science, communications and technology, Mohamed Maleh Jamal, who was appointed to the post from the JP. The motion was initially submitted by the MDP's parliamentary group in November 2020, signalling tensions between the two parties.

The biggest threat to political stability stems from the danger of factional splits within the MDP. Mr Solih is thought to have a good relationship with Mohamed Nasheed, a former president (2008-12), leader of the MDP and the current parliamentary speaker, who returned from exile in November 2018. However, they have often fallen out over government affairs and other operational issues. Although we do not expect tensions to spiral out of control, we continue to believe that Mr Nasheed will aim to secure a more central role in government, and, consequently, the risk of political in-fighting remains high.