Update Country Report Maldives 27 Apr 2020

Event

In the week beginning April 19th nine countries in Asia recorded an increase in new coronavirus (Covid-19) infections, down from 18 countries the previous week. The largest increases were in India, Singapore and Pakistan.

Analysis

Most countries in Asia showed signs that the coronavirus epidemic is stabilising-a result of the containment measures implemented in late-March. However, risk of new infections remains elevated, prompting Bangladesh, Singapore, the Solomon Islands, Myanmar and Pakistan to extend or tighten their restrictions.

Governments are still unclear as to how to exit lockdown, but many will adapt practices used by China. These include: localising shutdowns, while allowing the rest of the country to return to work; using mobile tracking technologies; and increasing testing. In China, Wuhan (the source of the coronavirus) in central Hubei province declared itself free of the disease on April 26th. Hospitals discharged the last coronavirus patients that day, an important signal for recovery. The reports do not include asymptomatic cases. As China has brought its outbreak under control, it has diverted attention to affairs overseas, including medical aid diplomacy, asserting claims in the South China Sea, and snapping up foreign acquisitions at reduced prices.

Vietnam continued to report the lowest coronavirus incidence rate in Asia, followed by Taiwan, despite both countries being among the first to suffer outbreaks after China, reflecting their tracing and testing measures. However, these countries will still be exposed to a collapse in demand for their exports in North American and European markets in the second quarter of 2020.

International media reported a surge in deaths globally in the first three months of 2020, compared to the historical average. The "excess deaths" were far higher than the official coronavirus fatalities. In Asia the media reported data for Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, where burials increased by around 1,400 in March compared to the monthly average for the same period in 2015-19. Official coronavirus deaths that month totalled 90. Most Asian countries report deaths on an annual basis, often with a time-lag, making it difficult to carry out a comparison. However, it is certain that insufficient testing and political interference mean that data should not be taken at face value.

Impact on the forecast

Our forecasts for economic growth in Asia in 2020 will be affected by the development of the pandemic; the length of lockdowns; and global demand conditions, among other factors. We will continue to adjust our forecasts as new data become available.