Update Country Report Maldives 01 Jun 2020

Event

In the week beginning May 25th, 18 countries in Asia reported a larger increase in new coronavirus (Covid-19) infections than in the previous seven days, up from 15 countries in the preceding week. The countries that recorded the largest increases were India, the Philippines and Bangladesh.

Analysis

The overall situation in Asia was mixed. Countries in Australasia and north-east Asia-including China, Hong Kong, Mongolia and South Korea-saw cases rise again after a period of stability. In South-east Asia, Indonesia and Singapore managed to stabilise their outbreaks, following a period of sustained growth in new infections. Outbreaks in South Asia showed no signs of slowing.

India recorded the largest rise in cases. This is due in part to an increase in testing, which has exceeded 100,000 people per day since mid-May, up from just over 5,000 at the start of April (although this is still low considering the size of the population). In addition, the government relaxed lockdown restrictions on May 4th; many migrant workers have travelled from cities to their rural homes after losing their jobs. On June 1st the government announced that it will ease restrictions further. It will pursue a strategy of containment, shutting down areas that experience a spike in infections, while allowing economic activity in low-risk areas to continue. This is similar to the approach China has taken.

The Philippines recorded a surge in new infections. Parts of the country (such as the capital, Manila) have been under lockdown since March 12th (one of the world's longest periods). The measures have helped to slow the spread of the disease but failed to bring it under control entirely. Low testing rates make it challenging to determine the true scale of the epidemic and the pace at which it is developing; the government was only testing around 6,000 samples per day on average at the end of May. The government went ahead with its decision to lift restrictions further on June 1st in Manila. Although this is likely to increase infections, we expect the authorities to rely on their tracing and testing scheme, while continuing to lift restrictions incrementally out of concern for the economy.

Impact on the forecast

We expect governments across Asia to continue with plans to restart activity, regardless of whether their epidemics have been brought under control, as they seek to contain the economic damage of lockdown.