Update Country Report Maldives 08 Jun 2020

Event

In the week starting June 1st nine countries in Asia reported a larger increase in coronavirus (Covid-19) infections than for the previous seven days, down from 18 countries the previous week. The countries that reported the largest numbers of new infections were India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Analysis

The coronavirus continued to spread rapidly in the three major South Asian economies, as well as Nepal and Afghanistan. In the rest of Asia, there were signs of improvement. The data indicate that, in 23 countries, the coronavirus's rate of reproduction was reduced (meaning that each infected individual transmitted the disease to fewer people than previously). The improvement is likely to be a result of containment policies taking effect.

Infection data can be erratic for many reasons, such as delayed onset of symptoms in patients, the lag in data collection, and discrepancies in testing methods. The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that countries must maintain a reduction in their case count for several consecutive weeks before businesses can be sure that the situation has stabilised. Even then, the risk remains of new clusters appearing, as shown by countries such as Japan and South Korea, which saw new infections accelerate again in June 1st-7th.

The Pacific Islands, which have, to date, escaped the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, continued to post low infection numbers, helped by their geographical isolation and the decision to ban high-risk visitors as early as January. However, this has come at a high cost to a region that is highly dependent on tourism. Australia and New Zealand, which accounted for over half of all visitors to the Pacific Islands in 2018, have discussed establishing a trans-Tasman travel bubble. While such an arrangement could deliver a much-needed lifeline economically to the Pacific Islands, there is no guarantee people could be persuaded to travel. There is also the risk that visitors could transmit the coronavirus, which would be devastating for the Pacific Islands in terms of human cost, given weak healthcare infrastructure, and could delay the recovery of the tourism sector in the long term.

Impact on the forecast

We expect the majority of Asian countries to continue easing restrictions on economic activity in June, which will help to ease some supply-side constraints. However, global and domestic demand will remain weak throughout the rest of 2020. Restoring investor and consumer confidence will, therefore, be the next biggest challenge for businesses and governments alike.