Update Country Report Maldives 20 Apr 2020

Event

In the week beginning April 13th 18 countries in Asia recorded a rise in new coronavirus (Covid-19) infections, up from 14 countries the previous week. The largest increases were in India and Singapore.

Analysis

We had forecast that containment measures would begin to take effect in mid-April, and on April 13th-19th the epidemic began to stabilise in 13 countries, including Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Thailand. These countries now have room to begin easing their lockdowns; Malaysia allowed companies in key sectors to apply to resume operations on April 14th, while New Zealand announced that restrictions could begin to be scaled back from April 27th.

The 21-day lockdown in India has not been effective, but we expect the government to allow some industries to resume production on April 20th, amid concern over economic growth and rising unemployment; limited social security puts low-income households particularly at risk. Pakistan eased restrictions on key industries on April 15th for similar reasons. Countries that were initially effective in containing the virus, such as Japan and Singapore, are still struggling to bring their second waves under control, despite tightening measures in early April.

In China, the north-eastern province of Heilongjiang has struggled to manage the return of Chinese nationals from overseas, including those crossing from Russia. The government has imposed lockdown on parts of the provincial capital, Harbin, and the border town of Suifenhe. We had expected China to record a flare-up of infections in the second quarter of 2020, but wider economic disruption looks containable, as Heilongjiang accounted for only 1.7% of China's nominal GDP in 2019.

Estimating the true death toll of the coronavirus remains a challenge. Wuhan, the source of the virus in China's central Hubei province, revised its death count to 3,869 on April 17th-an increase of 50% on its previous estimate. The revision was probably intended to improve the government's credibility, but is unlikely to stop international criticism of China's handling of the epidemic. Countries such as the US and the UK have been keen to blame China in order to deflect criticism away from their own responses to the crisis.

Impact on the forecast

The imposition of stricter containment measures is likely to pay off in terms of economic recovery in the long term. Even the gradual lifting of restrictions, if carried out prematurely, may prolong the outbreak in some countries, such as India and Pakistan, where healthcare systems are weak.