Update Country Report Maldives 25 May 2020

Event

In the week beginning May 18th, 15 countries in Asia reported a larger increase in new coronavirus (Covid-19) infections than in the previous seven days, up from 12 countries in the preceding week. The countries that saw the largest increases were India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Afghanistan.

Analysis

The countries that registered steepest rises in infections in May 18th-24th were in South Asia. India had the highest total number of cases in Asia, at almost 140,000 as at May 24th. Infections in the country have been rising sharply since early May, with the majority of cases in Maharashtra, the second-most populous state in the country. Despite no signs of the outbreak slowing, India allowed airports to reopen for domestic flights with heightened sanitation measures on May 25th. This was in line with The Economist Intelligence Unit's forecast that the government would not tolerate the cost of extending the lockdown to the economy.

Several countries in South-east Asia saw upticks in case numbers. In Indonesia infections have been rising since mid-March, but the government has been adverse to strict containment measures, owing to social pressures and out of concern for economic growth. However, new cases are likely to spike further following the Muslim festival of Eid, which began on May 23rd and typically involves social gatherings, and this could push the government to take a tougher stance. Malaysia saw a sharp escalation in the number of cases from mid-March to mid-April, after which containment measures slowed the spread. However, the trend picked up again in mid-May, leading the authorities to extend the lockdown until June 9th. Scaling for population, Singapore has the highest infection rate of any country in Asia, partly because it has one of the highest testing rates. Singapore's epidemic curve began to flatten in May 18th-24th, however, as its lockdown took effect.

In North-east Asia and Australasia, the situation remained relatively stable, with New Zealand, Hong Kong and Taiwan registering a small acceleration in new cases. New infections reduced in China, Japan and South Korea compared with the previous week.

Impact on the forecast

We expect the situation in North-east Asia and Australasia to remain stable over the coming week, permitting the gradual easing of restrictions to continue. Infections will continue to rise in South Asia, Malaysia and Indonesia, which will weigh upon consumer and business sentiment.