The government is headed by Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), who was elected as president of the country in November 2018. This completed a transfer of power that was notably smooth, given the country's volatile political history. Democratic institutions and accountability suffered under the long and autocratic presidency of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, which lasted from 1978 to 2008. The subsequent presidency of the MDP's Mohamed Nasheed was ended prematurely in 2012 amid protests, with Mr Nasheed alleging that he was forced from office at gunpoint. The tenure of Mr Solih's predecessor, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), saw further instability. Mr Yameen (who is also the half-brother of Mr Gayoom) cracked down on his political opponents and clashed with other senior politicians, most notably his vice-president, Ahmed Adeeb, who was removed through a no-confidence motion during a state of emergency in 2015.

Following the legislative election in April 2019 Mr Solih's MDP emerged as the single largest party in the People's Majlis (the legislature), unseating the PPM, the main opposition party, which now has a greatly reduced representation; the MDP holds 65 seats in the 87-seat legislature, while the PPM has just five. The ruling party's huge majority in the Majlis gives the government a free hand to push through its policy agenda.

However, the rise of the MDP in parliament has also come at the expense of the Jumhooree Party (JP), the country's third-largest party and a key member of the ruling coalition, which has lost several of its seats. This puts the future of the coalition in jeopardy. Although Mr Solih has said that the coalition will remain in place, our core expectation is that it will fall apart in 2020-21. However, this will not have a significant impact on the stability of the government.

The JP is now more likely to join hands with the PPM in opposition than to accept a diminished role in the coalition with the MDP. The MDP would also prefer to see the JP leave the government than have to make concessions to it under the coalition agreement between the two parties (the JP holds a relatively insignificant five seats).

The ruling MDP's control over the presidency and the executive will aid political effectiveness and ease policymaking for the government. Mr Solih is committed to socioeconomic development and reforms and will continue to accord a high priority to these areas during his term in office. In October 2019 he unveiled the Strategic Action Plan 2019-23, which will serve as a guide to his government's policymaking as it seeks to achieve its development goals. Despite Mr Solih's strong will to pursue reform measures, his ability to implement them will remain constrained by the presence of influential opposition figures.

That said, Mr Yameen-one of Mr Solih's most formidable opponents-is now serving a five-year jail sentence after being convicted in a money-laundering case in November 2019. Mr Yameen's incarceration, although likely to be short-lived, will further boost the MDP's political position. Mr Yameen has launched an appeal against his conviction.

Although Mr Solih's government will not face any significant challenge from the beleaguered opposition, he may have to confront difficulties within his own party. The president is thought to have a good relationship with Mr Nasheed, who returned to the Maldives from exile in November 2018 and was subsequently elected to parliament. However, the former president is unlikely to be comfortable accepting a secondary role in the government, and the risk of clashes between Mr Nasheed and Mr Solih will be high. On the whole, The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that political stability will not be threatened, although the danger of factional splits within the party will remain a risk throughout the forecast period.