Update Country Report Maldives 13 Oct 2022

What happened?

On October 12th the UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly in favour of a resolution condemning Russia's attempts to annex four regions of Ukraine. North Korea was the only country in Asia to vote alongside Russia against the motion, although a sizeable number-including China and India-chose to abstain.

Why does it matter?

The vote showed that diplomatic opinion in Asia remains broadly opposed to Russia's actions, and this will remain an important element in the global effort pressuring the Russian state and military. UN members in Asia largely voted as they had in a resolution in March condemning Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine. Those voting in favour included US allies, such as Australia, Japan and South Korea, but also non-aligned countries as diverse as Cambodia, Indonesia, Nepal and Singapore. Bangladesh was the only country to have abstained in March but to have supported the most recent resolution; it has received high-level US visits in the intervening period.

Nevertheless, the failure to persuade more countries in Asia to condemn Russian actions, rather than abstain, will hinder Western-led efforts to isolate Russia. Although China's abstention was no surprise, India has been courted extensively by Western powers in an attempt to get it to take a tougher stance. Its prime minister, Narendra Modi, has gone as far as to raise concerns about the war with Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, but his government has remained resolutely neutral. Other abstainers included Vietnam, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Access to discounted Russian energy, long-standing defence ties with Russia and unease about the scope of US sanctions are drivers for their decisions.

Pressure will be stepped up on abstaining countries to take sides, especially if the conflict in Ukraine intensifies. Thailand chose to abstain on the latest resolution, notwithstanding its status as a US defence ally and despite its vote in favour of condemning Russia in March. The decision could be linked with reports that Mr Putin will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) forum meeting to be hosted in Thailand on November 18th-19th (the US president, Joe Biden, is declining to attend). In any case, it risks the withdrawal of some US co-operation, and could encourage Western powers to be less mindful of Thailand's concerns about widening international energy sanctions on Myanmar.

What next?

The Russia-Ukraine conflict will dominate Indonesia's hosting of the G20 meeting (November 15th-16th) as well as APEC in Thailand, testing the diplomatic skills of both countries. Neutral Asian countries will continue to be courted by opposing sides in the conflict, through a mixture of incentives and threats. Some, such as India, are likely to be able to maintain their position without repercussions, but others could face reprisal measures.