Update Country Report Maldives 23 Sep 2022

What's happened?

In mid-September Mohamed Nasheed, the leader of the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), stated publicly that the government led by the president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, had failed to fulfil several of its electoral promises. Mr Nasheed's comments highlight protracted in-fighting within the MDP, as its two main leaders spar over issues of complacency and corruption.

Why does it matter?

The rift between Mr Solih and Mr Nasheed, who is also the parliament speaker, could adversely affect the party's electoral prospects in the presidential and parliamentary polls scheduled for September 2023 and early 2024 respectively. However, although the factional tussle has weakened the party's support base, it has not yet damaged political stability. Mr Solih remains firmly in control and has been able to pass the bulk of his administration's agenda.

There are not many points of disagreement between Mr Solih and Mr Nasheed that are causing tension, other than Mr Nasheed seems uncomfortable accepting a secondary role in national politics behind Mr Solih. Both leaders have broadly been in agreement regarding various critical issues, such as the running of the party, the government's foreign policy stance and the threat of rising extremism in the country. Mr Nasheed had even withdrawn his resolution seeking the party's support for a national referendum to shift from presidential to parliamentary governance, in apparent deference to appeals made by Mr Solih during the national congress of the MDP in August.

Despite both leaders' intention to prioritise the MDP's goals, there remains a low risk of further escalation in the conflict over a possible no-confidence motion against Mr Nasheed by members of parliament loyal to Mr Solih. However, this resolution may be unsuccessful, as it will require a two-thirds majority in the legislature, which will be difficult to secure.

What next?

In the run-up to the MDP's presidential primary (to be held in October), which will determine the party's candidate, more skirmishes between the two leaders are expected; however, they are unlikely to escalate to the extent that the party splits. Mr Solih has announced his intention to seek re-election, but Mr Nasheed has not revealed plans to contest the primary. Once the MDP has an official presidential candidate, both leaders will probably work together to ensure that the party retains power over the executive and the legislature. EIU expects the MDP to retain the presidency in 2023, despite divisions in the party benefiting Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, the main leader of the opposition Progressive Party of Maldives and a former president who is looking to return to power.