Global prices dominate inflationary trends in the Maldives, as domestic consumption, driven mainly by tourism expenditure, is met mostly through imports. Although global prices are expected to moderate in 2023, they will remain elevated by historic levels, exerting inflationary pressure, particularly for food, utilities and transport. However, the government's comprehensive policy of capping the cost of utilities (which make up more than one-fifth of the consumer price index) and other living expenses for citizens will blunt the pass-through of global price pressures. We expect the government to maintain its current subsidies in 2023 before a measured withdrawal of subsidy support from 2024, thus suppressing a pick-up in the headline inflation rate over the forecast period. We forecast consumer price inflation to average 2.2% in 2023, moderating from an estimated 2.5% in 2022. Higher pressure on government spending in the light of the presidential election in 2023 will maintain an elevated inflationary environment compared to historical standards.