The next presidential election is due in September 2023, and the next parliamentary election in early 2024. The MDP's candidacy for the upcoming election will be contested by Mr Nasheed and Mr Solih in the primary vote, although there is a possibility that Mr Nasheed will field a proxy. We expect Mr Solih to secure the MDP's endorsement comfortably, and Mr Nasheed subsequently to lend his backing, in order to suppress the PPM's chances.

The PPM will remain the MDP's main contender in the upcoming elections. Mr Yameen's release has breathed life into the party's effort to rally its support base by suggesting that the current administration's "India first" foreign policy threatens the country's sovereignty. Although a close call, we maintain our expectation that the MDP-through Mr Solih-will retain the presidency in 2023.