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Country Report Maldives January 2022
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HTMLUpdate Country Report Maldives 07 Jan 2022
Asia week ahead: Omicron wave looms
Politics and policy
India will launch a "precautionary" (booster) dose programme on January 10th, starting with healthcare and front-line workers, as well as the over-60 age cohort. The launch coincides with a swift upswing in daily cases, foreshadowing the onset of a third wave linked to the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. Read more.
More territories could introduce restrictions in response to the Omicron variant. Three Japanese prefectures are set to introduce "quasi" state-of-emergency regulations from January 9th to combat increased community transmission. Hong Kong is among those to have already announced tighter social restrictions. Read more.
Geopolitics and strategy
China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, will end his five-country tour of the Indian Ocean region in the Maldives on 7th-8th January and then Sri Lanka. Mr Wang's trip coincides with brewing anti-India sentiment in the Maldives (read more) and the suspension of a planned Chinese investment in Sri Lanka (read more).
Economics and markets
Trade data will feature prominently, with data expected from Australia, China and the Philippines. Exports are expected to benefit from firm global demand and elevated commodity prices.
| Asia week ahead: economic data to watch | ||||||
| Release date | Country | Data release | For | Previous | EIU expectation | EIU forecast |
| Mon Jan 10th | Australia | Trade balance | Nov | US$9.7bn | Exports to moderate, owing to weaker Chinese demand | US$76.6bn (2021) |
| Philippines | Trade balance | Nov | -US$4bn | Import growth to outpace exports, helped by the economy reopening | -US$50.2bn (2021) | |
| Tues Jan 11th | China | Consumer prices | Dec | 2.3% year on year | An acceleration, owing to lockdown-related disruption | 0.9% (2021) |
| Wed Jan 12th | India | Consumer prices | Dec | 4.9% year on year | An acceleration, driven by rising food prices and the waning of favourable base effects | 5.3% (2021) |
| India | Industrial production | Nov | 3.2% year on year | A pick-up, on the back of stronger domestic and global demand | 15% (2021) | |
| Fri Jan 14th | China | Trade balance | Dec | US$50.1bn | Exports to cool as holiday demand eases | US$637.3bn (2021) |
| South Korea | Interest-rate decision | Jan | 1.00% | A hold, owing to economic uncertainty caused by Omicron | 1.5% (end-2022) | |
| Source: EIU. | ||||||
Highlights from last week:
Indonesia's economy faces obstacles in 2022-23: Monetary policy tightening in the US will precipitate weakening of the rupiah and spur Bank Indonesia, the central bank, to raise rates. Read more.
The telling case of India's state elections: EIU expects the Bharatiya Janata Party to win the state poll in Uttar Pradesh comfortably but to lose Punjab to the Indian National Congress (the national opposition), with a chance of a hung assembly. Read more.
Vietnam plots a course of currency appreciation: We expect the authorities to maintain their willingness to ease intervention, which led to a faster appreciation of the dong in 2021, in the coming years, although the pace of appreciation will slow. Read more.
