Update Country Report Maldives 13 Dec 2021

Event

On November 30th the Supreme Court acquitted Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, the former president of the Maldives (2013-18), from his house arrest. Mr Yameen was sentenced to five years in jail in 2019 for embezzling US$1m of state funds and shifted to house arrest in 2020 in light of the covid-19 pandemic.

Analysis

The unanimous decision came from a three-judge panel on grounds of insufficient evidence. The release of Mr Yameen, who leads the main opposition Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), makes him eligible to contest the 2023 presidential elections, throwing off the balance of the country's political stability and foreign relations.

A stronger PPM threatens the dominance of the ruling coalition, led by the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), which has become increasingly divided over 2021. The two key party figures-Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the president of the Maldives, and Mohamed Nasheed, leader of the MDP and speaker of parliament-have fallen out over matters of corruption and religious extremism.

The threat of the PPM's resurgence may encourage Mr Solih and Mr Nasheed to temporarily lay their differences to rest. Nevertheless, their row has frustrated the party's supporters, reflected in the MDP's defeat in local government polls in April and poor voter turnout in its organisational elections in September. Mr Nasheed's demand for a nation-wide referendum to change the governance from a presidential to parliamentary system has also irritated coalition allies. The comeback of Mr Yameen-who had lost the 2018 elections, but with a decent 42% vote share-means that the MDP no longer enjoys a guaranteed victory in the upcoming elections.

Mr Yameen's release has also breathed life into the PPM's "India Out" campaign, which was later modified to "India Military Out" campaign. During his presidency, Mr Yameen had drawn the country closer to China via infrastructure development projects, invoking the ire of India. He has already announced plans to travel across the country to intensify the movement against the Indian military presence in the Maldives. A resurrection of this realignment away from India and towards China is likely if Mr Yameen is voted to power in 2023.

Impact on the forecast

Political infighting within the MDP will provide Mr Yameen favourable grounds to expand voter support, making the 2023 presidential election a close call. The EIU's forecast that the MDP will retain the presidency depends heavily on the party's ability to heal internal fractures and win back lost support in 2022.