Update Country Report Curaçao 11 Feb 2021

Event

Curaçao's government announced in early February that its coronavirus (Covid-19) vaccination rollout would begin mid-month, with the aim of vaccinating all adults by the beginning of June. The Netherlands is supporting the programme and overseeing delivery of vaccine doses.

Analysis

According to the government, the first batch of Pfizer/BioNTech (US/Germany) vaccines will arrive from the Netherlands in mid-February, with distribution set to begin in the third week of the month. Healthcare workers and people aged over 60 will be prioritised, with all those over 18 due to be vaccinated in a second phase. The government projects that about 100,000 doses of the vaccine will be administered over the two phases.

This ambitious schedule is designed to ensure that the country is fully vaccinated before the start of the hurricane season, which lasts from June to November and could affect vaccine supplies and the rollout of the programme. If successful, Curaçao would be well positioned for the start of the tourism season (in November), when the government will hope for a rebound in arrivals from its main source markets-such as the Netherlands (Curaçao's largest source of tourists) and the US-many of which are expected to be in advanced stages of the vaccination process by that time. This bodes well for the island's economic recovery, which is set to begin this year but will only gain steam in 2022.

The arrival of the vaccine is positive news for Curaçao and further underpins the government's claim that the economy will start returning to normal by the end of the year. Positive sentiment around this development is likely to translate into increased support for the government of the prime minister, Eugene Rhuggenaath, and give his party, the Partido Alternativa Real (PAR) a boost ahead of the general election, scheduled for March 19th.

Impact on the forecast

Our economic forecasts are broadly unchanged. Bearing in mind the excess global demand for vaccines vis-à-vis supply, we expect the vaccine rollout in Curaçao to face some bottlenecks, which leads us to believe that herd immunity will set in by mid-2022. The electoral boost from the positive vaccine news strengthens our assumption that the PAR (along with its current coalition partner, the Partido MAN) will be able to form the next government, with support from smaller parties that will compete for single seats.