Update Country Report Curaçao 14 Jan 2021

Event

Curaçao is due to hold parliamentary elections on March 9th, and political parties are already in campaigning mode. The coronavirus (Covid-19) crisis and the post-pandemic economic recovery will be key electoral issues and could lead to losses for the government led by the prime minister, Eugene Rhuggenaath.

Analysis

Voter registration was completed in late December, and party and electoral candidate lists will be submitted to the Electoral Council from January 21st. As at January 13th the Electoral Council reported that 24 parties had already registered to contest the 21 seats in parliament, demonstrating the atomised nature of Curaçao's political system.

In 2017 seven out of the 11 parties that contested the election won parliamentary seats. The increased number of parties vying for seats this year partly reflects frustration with established political parties and their handling of the pandemic. In particular, Mr Rhuggenaath's Partido Alternativa Real (PAR)-currently the largest party in parliament, with six seats-may be punished at the polls, along with its coalition partner, the Partido MAN (MAN), which has five seats. Although much of the economic impact of the pandemic on the key tourism industry was unavoidable, Mr Rhuggenaath has been criticised for the lengthy negotiating period for agreeing loans from the Netherlands.

The main opposition party, Movementu Futuro Kòrsou (MFK, five seats), may therefore be hoping to pick up some seats from the PAR and MAN, effectively taking the PAR's position as the largest party. However, there is a downside risk to this view, as the MFK's image has been tarnished significantly owing to its association with a former prime minister, Gerrit Schotte (2010-12), who was convicted by the Court of Curaçao for bribery, forgery and money laundering in 2014.

The proliferation of registrations by smaller parties points to a closely fought contest, with some new parties being formed to contest single seats rather than cultivating a presence across multiple constituencies. In addition, some politicians may also move between parties to improve their electoral chances. For example, Elsa Rozendal left the MAN in December to join the Democratic Party, which currently has no parliamentary presence, citing concerns about the incumbent government's policy towards the pandemic.

Impact on the forecast

Although the MFK is likely to take some seats from the PAR and the MAN, we expect the latter two parties to form the next government, with support from some of the smaller parties that are competing for single seats.