General elections will be held on March 19th; 15 parties will compete for 21 parliamentary seats. With six seats, the PAR is currently the largest single party in parliament. However, the party and its leader, current prime minister Eugene Rhuggenaath, have seen their popularity fade over the past year, owing to the government's handling of the pandemic and decision to adopt austerity measures that sparked some unrest. The PAR's main coalition partner, the MAN (which has five seats) is seeking to distance itself from the former in the meantime in order to avoid getting punished at the polls.

We view the MFK as best positioned to secure the largest share of votes at the upcoming polls, although its unlikely to form a government on its own and will have to rely on the MAN or the smaller parties. The MFK (which also has five seats) is aiming to capitalise on popular dissatisfaction with the Rhuggenaath administration by running on a platform of policies that prioritise national interests. As such, the MFK is likely to gain some seats at the expense of the PAR, and this-combined with MAN's attempts at distancing itself from the PAR-erodes the PAR's chances of clinging to power. However, given that elections are often closely fought, our current forecast of an MFK victory is subject to major risks, including the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines that is likely to boost voter support for the PAR.