Update Country Report Maldives 15 Oct 2019

Event

In early October the president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, officially launched his government's Strategic Action Plan (SAP) for 2019-23.

Analysis

The document, which Mr Solih declared will be used as a roadmap to guide his government's policymaking, outlines the priorities, development goals and strategic targets that the government aims to achieve during the current term. The SAP comprises five priority areas, which are further broken down into 33 subsectors. These five themes have been defined as Blue Economy, Caring State, Dignified Families, Jazeera Dhiriulhun and Good Governance.

While Blue Economy refers to the government's planned measures to boost economic growth, Caring State incorporates steps that aim to improve society at large. Similarly, through its Dignified Families plan, the government will aim to counter social discrimination and ensure the elevation of deprived sections of society. Jazeera Dhiriulhun highlights the government's plans to strengthen community infrastructure and services.

The announcement of the SAP and its contents fits broadly with our view that Mr Solih will take steps to improve the country's socioeconomic conditions, which deteriorated significantly under his predecessor, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom (2013-18). The ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), to which Mr Solih belongs, controls both the presidency and the legislature. This will aid political effectiveness and smooth policymaking for the government. However, given the country's volatile political history and the threat of in-fighting within the MDP, there are significant downside risks to this forecast.

Impact on the forecast

We believe that Mr Solih will continue to push for strong socioeconomic development and reform during his term in office. However, given the presence of strong opposition figures in the political arena, we believe that he will struggle to implement all of the measures in a speedy fashion.