Update Country Report Maldives 04 Dec 2019

Event

In late November the former president, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, was convicted by a criminal court in a money-laundering case and sentenced to five years in prison.

Analysis

The verdict was pronounced by a panel of five judges, headed by Ali Rasheed. It was a unanimous decision after the prosecutors established that Mr Yameen had received US$1m of public money through a private company that was intended for government funds. In addition to the jail term, he received a fine of US$5m. On December 2nd Mr Yameen filed an appeal against the verdict in the high court and sought release on bail.

The main opposition party, the Progressive Party of the Maldives, and Mr Yameen's party, the People's National Congress, believe the court case against Mr Yameen to be politically motivated. Despite his defeat in the last presidential election to the incumbent, Ibrahim Mohammad Solih, Mr Yameen remains an influential figure in domestic politics. The political position of the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) will be strengthened further, as Mr Yameen's conviction will leave the already-beleaguered opposition weaker without a key leader. The government's image will also be enhanced, as voters are likely to see this as a fulfilment of Mr Solih's electoral promise of prosecuting Mr Yameen for corruption during the latter's presidential term.

Impact on the forecast

The development reinforces our view that the MDP will dominate the political scene during the forecast period, with its firm control of the legislature and the executive.