The government is headed by Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) who was elected as president of the country in November 2018. This completed a transfer of power that was notably smooth, given the country's volatile political history. Democratic institutions and accountability suffered under the long and autocratic presidency of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, which lasted for three decades between 1978 and 2008. The subsequent presidency of the MDP's Mohamed Nasheed was ended prematurely in 2012 amid protests, with Mr Nasheed alleging that he was forced from office at gunpoint. The tenure of Mr Solih's predecessor, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), saw further instability. Mr Yameen (who is also the half-brother of Mr Gayoom) cracked down on his political opponents and clashed with other senior politicians, most notably his vice-president, Ahmed Adeeb, who was removed through a no-confidence motion during a state of emergency in 2015.

Following the legislative election in April 2019 Mr Solih's MDP emerged as the single largest party in the People's Majlis (the legislature), unseating the PPM, the main opposition party, which now has a greatly reduced representation. In the 87-seat legislature, the MDP now holds 65 seats. Meanwhile, the PPM had just 5 seats. The MDP's huge majority in the Majlis gives the government a free hand to push its policy agenda through parliament.

However, the rise of the MDP in parliament has also come at the expense of the Jumhooree Party (JP, the country's third-largest party and a key member of the ruling coalition), which has lost several of its seats. This puts the future of the coalition in jeopardy. Although Mr Solih has said that the coalition will remain in place, our core expectation is that it will fall apart in 2020-21.

The JP is now more likely to join hands with the PPM in opposition than to accept a diminished role in the coalition with the MDP. The MDP would also prefer to see the JP leave the government rather than have to make concessions to it under the coalition agreement between the two parties (the JP holds a relatively insignificant five seats). The MDP now has more than enough seats to pass legislation in the Majlis, and does not need to rely on any other party for support. Any breakdown of the coalition will therefore not have a significant impact on the stability of the government.

The ruling MDP's control over the presidency and the executive will aid political effectiveness and smooth policymaking for the government. Mr Solih is committed to socioeconomic development and reforms and will continue to accord a high priority to these areas during his term in office. In October 2019 he unveiled the Strategic Action Plan 2019-23, a roadmap that will serve as a guide to his government's policymaking as it seeks to achieve its development goals. Despite Mr Solih's strong will to pursue reform measures, his ability to implement them will remain constrained by the presence of strong and influential opposition figures in the political arena.

That said, Mr Yameen-one of Mr Solih's most formidable opponents-is now in jail after being convicted in a money-laundering case and sentenced to five years in prison by a criminal court in November 2019. Mr Yameen's incarceration, although likely to be short-lived, will further boost the MDP's political position. Mr Yameen is still believed to have a support network in the judiciary and will in all probability be released on bail soon, assuming his appeal plea is accepted by the high court. A ruling is due in early 2020.

Although Mr Solih's government will not face any significant challenge from the beleaguered opposition, he may have to confront difficulties within his own party. The president is thought to have a good relationship with Mr Nasheed, who returned to the Maldives from exile in November 2018 and was subsequently elected to parliament. However, the former president is unlikely to be comfortable accepting a secondary role in the government, and the risk of clashes between Mr Nasheed and Mr Solih will be high. On the whole, the Economist Intelligence Unit believes that political stability will not be threatened, although the danger of factional splits within the party will remain a risk throughout the forecast period.

Outside the political sphere, there is a risk that Islamic militancy could lead to violence in the Maldives. Many in the country follow a strict strain of Wahhabism, and dozens of residents are thought to have joined militant Islamic groups overseas in the last 20 years. There have been a number of incidents that have blended political and religious-based violence in recent years, including the killing of a liberal blogger, Yameen Rasheed, in 2017. The islands' many tourist resorts could prove to be vulnerable targets for Islamist terrorists if the security forces are unable to contain these threats at an early stage.