The next presidential election is due in September 2023, and the next parliamentary election in early 2024. In the previous presidential campaign the absence of Mr Nasheed (who was living in exile in the UK) resulted in Mr Solih being chosen as the presidential candidate for an MDP-led coalition against the then incumbent PPM. The MDP's endorsement for the upcoming election will be contested by both individuals in the primary elections this time round. The losing candidate is likely to support the winning one in the presidential poll, despite their disagreements, in order to suppress the PPM's chances of victory.

A divided MDP will also encourage other contenders to enter the presidential race, but the PPM will remain its main contender. Mr Yameen's release has breathed life into the PPM's effort to rally its support base by suggesting that the current administration's "India first" foreign policy threatens the country's sovereignty. For the public, however, growing tourism and trade ties with India are likely to overshadow security concerns over its military presence on the islands, suggesting that this campaign may not be a vote winner. Although a close call, we continue to expect the MDP to retain presidency in 2023 on the condition that it is able to heal internal fractures.