Update Country Report Maldives 04 Mar 2022

What happened?

On March 2nd the UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly in favour of a resolution demanding that Russia end its military operation in Ukraine. A number of Asian countries that had initially refused to condemn Russia decided to support the resolution. North Korea was the only country in the region-and one of five globally, including Russia-to vote against it.

Why does it matter?

The shift in stance among Asian countries will help to solidify international efforts, ranging from diplomatic condemnation to sanctions and military support for Ukraine, aimed at pressuring the Russian state and military. Asia's adherence to a neutral position on the invasion would have weakened this campaign and could also potentially have preserved more economic and diplomatic lifelines for Russia.

The shift to a more critical stance towards Russia reflects concern about the country's escalating military action in Ukraine, following the initial incursion, as well as public pressure. China's move from a stance that was initially supportive of Russia and critical of the US to one that is slightly more balanced (it decided to abstain on the UN vote) will also have been an influential factor. A number of countries in the region would not have wanted their vote to be seen as taking sides on the broader issue of US-China relations.

A shift was most discernible among member states of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), who, with the exception of Indonesia and Singapore, had initially taken a neutral stance on the crisis. Laos and Vietnam were the only members to abstain on the vote, although Myanmar's vote in support of the motion was not reflective of the junta's position of support for Russia (the country's ambassador to the UN was appointed by the government deposed in the 2021 military coup). The Pacific island countries all voted in favour of the motion, after being initially slow to take a position.

India abstained, in line with its initial stance and despite pressure from fellow democracies to condemn the invasion. The country has traditionally adhered to a non-aligned foreign policy and has historic and defence ties with Russia, which it continues to view as crucial to the management of troubled relations with China and Pakistan.

What next?

The vote suggests that regional compliance with international sanctions will be high, and that Russia will experience a high degree of diplomatic and economic isolation in Asia. Reprisal measures from Russia (or North Korea) cannot be ruled out, especially against countries that have taken the toughest stances. These could include cyberattacks and economic measures that could be disruptive to corporate operations.