The ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) dominates the People's Majlis (parliament), with 65 of the 87 seats. This has enabled the president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, to pass the bulk of his administration's agenda. The EIU's core forecast is that the MDP will serve out the remainder of its term, which expires in 2024.

The risks to political stability have risen however, after Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, the former president of the Maldives (2013-18), was acquitted from a five-year prison term in November 2021. This makes Mr Yameen, who leads the main opposition, Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), eligible to contest the 2023 presidential election. He had lost the 2018 election with a 42% vote share, meaning that the MDP no longer enjoys a guaranteed victory in the poll.

Political infighting within the MDP has also weakened its support base, reflected in the party's defeat in local government polls in April 2021. The two main party figures-Mohamed Nasheed, the leader of the MDP, speaker of the People's Majlis and a former president (2008-12), and Mr Solih-are believed to have often fallen out over matters of complacency and corruption in government functioning. Their tug-of-war has created confusion in the ranks of the party, as well as within the country's security forces. This could hinder the response in the face of a security threat to officials, locals and foreign tourists; however, we do not currently expect the impact of this to be significant. The Taliban's assumption of power in Afghanistan is also likely to embolden local fringe groups in the Maldives, increasing the risk of social unrest in the country.

Since surviving an assassination attempt in May 2021 (allegedly launched by a local Islamist group), Mr Nasheed has also been pushing for a national referendum to shift from presidential to parliamentary governance, which would enable a party to form a government via majority rather than through coalition negotiations under the current system. This has irritated the MDP's coalition allies, mainly comprising conservative lawmakers who view Mr Nasheed's stance as an attack on religion. Mr Solih seems to be in favour of supporting the parliamentary scheme after the 2023 presidential election, should he return as president, when he believes that the country's tourism industry will have emerged from the shadow of covid-19.

We believe that Mr Yameen's political comeback is likely to encourage Mr Nasheed and Mr Solih to lay their differences to rest, albeit temporarily, as an MDP victory in the upcoming presidential elections in 2023 remains paramount for both. On Mr Nasheed's part, this will require a softening of his demands for changing the country's political structure and pushing for controversial legislations such as the hate-crime bill (which is viewed by conservative lawmakers as an attack on religion) to heal internal party fractures, while Mr Solih will have to win back lost public support through supportive welfare schemes in 2022.