Update Country Report Curaçao 13 Apr 2021

Event

Curaçao is experiencing a new wave of coronavirus (Covid-19) infections, which has led the government to reimpose economic restrictions across the island.

Analysis

On April 8th Curaçao reported 207 new cases and two deaths, bringing the total number of deaths during the pandemic to 58. Cases have risen sharply in the past month, with active cases now totalling 4,572. As a result, the government reimposed a lockdown on March 24th in an effort to control the spread of the virus. Most non-essential businesses are now closed, gatherings are banned and a curfew remains in place. People are allowed to leave the house twice a week, with the day determined by their car licence plate. The police are carrying out spot checks on motorists, but have stated that illegal gatherings continue to take place, driving up transmission rates.

Curaçao is now struggling to accelerate its vaccination programme in order to stem this new wave of infections. As of April 7th, 24,000 people had received the first vaccine dose, with a further 44,000 booked in, out of 125,000 people eligible for the vaccination on the island. The island has sufficient vaccine supplies, but there are bottlenecks in delivery, ranging from lack of medical staff to administer the vaccine to support staff and appointment organisers.

The Netherlands is providing additional support in response to rising cases, with 20 medical staff arriving in early April and a further 40 set to arrive by mid-April. The island aims to increase the rate of vaccinations to 10,000 per day. Although the target seems ambitious, the government hopes to open three to four more vaccination centres, which, combined with the additional medical staff, sufficient vaccine supplies and a small population, should help to speed up the vaccination rate.

The latest wave of Covid-19 cases and the ensuing mobility restrictions will deal some damage to the island's slowly recovering tourism industry. Although the island technically remains open for international tourism, the rising case numbers and extensive local restrictions are set to deter many potential visitors. Tourist arrivals continued to fall in February, sliding by 82% year on year.

Impact on the forecast

The new restrictions pose downside risks to our view that real GDP will grow by 5.5% in 2021, and pose an immediate challenge for the incoming administration of Gilmar Pisas and his centre-right Movementu Futuro Kòrsou party.