The structurally large current-account deficit will narrow over the forecast period, to an average 17% of GDP, after peaking at an estimated 20.5% of GDP in 2020. The estimated widening of the deficit in 2020 is mainly the result of a sharp downturn in the tourism sector. This will be partly offset by a decline in the import bill as domestic demand for imports falls and oil prices drop amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Oil prices will rise in 2021, lifting the import bill and partly offsetting moderate export growth. Overall, the current-account deficit will narrow to 18.5% of GDP in 2021 and 15.1% of GDP in 2022, driven by a widening of the services surplus. In February international reserves for the currency union with Sint Maarten stood at Naf2.9bn (US$1.6bn).