Update Country Report Maldives 30 Sep 2019

Event

On September 29th General Bipin Rawat, India's Chief of Army Staff, arrived in the Maldives for a four-day official visit that will conclude on October 3rd.

Analysis

During this trip Mr Rawat is scheduled to hold meetings with the top military and government officials of the Maldives to discuss ideas on further strengthening defence and security ties between the two countries. The Indian army chief will engage in talks with his Maldivian counterpart, Major General Abdulla Shamaal, the Chief of National Defence Forces, as well as other senior military personnel. He will also be meeting the Maldivian president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the defence minister and the foreign minister.

The Maldives attracts a lot of interest from the two Asian giants-India and China-owing to its strategic location in the Indian Ocean. The two countries are keen to expand their influence in the region. The previous Maldivian administration under the former president, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, had established close bilateral ties with China, which the current administration has been quick to roll back. The present government has been continuously working on enhancing relations with India.

Since Mr Solih came to power in November 2018 there have been several bilateral visits by high-level officials of both countries. Within this short span of less than a year, the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, and Mr Solih have met on a number of occasions. These include Mr Solih's state visit to India in December 2018 and Mr Modi's trip to the Maldives in June 2019. These visits, carried out in quick succession, reaffirm our view that India and the Maldives will remain committed to forging a strong bilateral partnership.

Impact on the forecast

We expect India to continue showing an interest in the Maldives, owing partly to the latter's strategic location in the Indian Ocean. On its part, the Maldives under Mr Solih's government, will also successfully cultivate closer bilateral ties with India, which will be accompanied by a rollback of engagement with China.