Update Country Report Maldives 28 Aug 2019

Event

The former vice-president of the Maldives, Ahmed Adeeb, testified in court on August 22nd.

Analysis

In early August Mr Adeeb tried to flee to India on a boat to seek political asylum. On reaching Thoothukudi, an Indian port city in the state of Tamil Nadu, he was denied entry to India on the grounds of improper travel documentation and attempting to enter the country through a non-designated port of entry. Subsequently, he was deported to the Maldives, where he was arrested by the Maldivian police on his arrival.

The former vice-president's court appearance on August 22nd was in connection with a case against the former president of the Maldives, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom (in office in 2013-18). According to reports by the Associated Press news agency, in court, Mr Adeeb admitted to helping Mr Yameen to launder US$1m that had been obtained in connection with a deal leasing out an island for development as a tourist resort.

The courts will need to balance the value of Mr Adeeb's testimony as a witness closely associated with the former president against his credibility as someone who also suffered under the previous administration. Mr Adeeb was imprisoned under Mr Yameen's government in connection with money laundering charges and an alleged assassination attempt on Mr Yameen in 2015. However, in May 2019 an appeals court overturned these convictions and ordered retrials.

Impact on the forecast

We maintain our call that there is still a risk that Mr Yameen could move to overthrow the current president-Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party-using his support networks in the security forces. The country's political system remains in flux and the loyalty of key institutions to the current government remains in doubt.