Update Country Report Maldives 05 Jun 2019

Event

In late May the former president of the Maldives and leader of the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), Mohamed Nasheed, was appointed speaker of the People's Majlis (the legislature).

Analysis

Mr Nasheed secured 67 votes in the 87-seat legislature, in which 65 seats are held by the MDP. Before the vote, MDP in-fighting had threatened to split the party. The intra-party tensions stemmed from a disagreement between Mr Nasheed and the president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, over their preferred candidate for the speakership. Each had initially expressed a preference for a different candidate from the MDP. Mr Solih backed Hassan Afeef, while Mohamed Aslam had Mr Nasheed's support. In order to avert a potential crisis, Mr Nasheed was persuaded to change his mind about contesting the role and put forward his own candidacy instead.

We had highlighted earlier that Mr Nasheed's return to active politics, following his victory in the April parliamentary elections, would increase political in-fighting. His appointment as speaker has averted a major split between the two main leaders of the MDP and will help to hold the party together, for the time being. However, as Mr Nasheed re-engages more actively in the country's politics, the risk of rivalry between him and Mr Solih will increase and will pose a serious threat to the unity of the party.

Impact on the forecast

We maintain our view that the dominance of the MDP in the legislature will underpin political stability and aid smooth policymaking. The appointment of Mr Nasheed as speaker will further boost the MDP's ability to pursue its legislative agenda in the Majlis in the next year or so.