The tourism sector accounts for almost a quarter of the Maldives' GDP, making it one of the main drivers of economic growth in the country. China is the largest source of visitors, accounting for almost a fifth of total tourist arrivals in 2018. However, the present government's difficult relationship with China is likely to lead to a significant slowdown in export growth in 2019, as Chinese tourist arrivals stagnate or decline on account of the bilateral tension. We expect growth in public consumption to slow in 2019-20 (compared with 2018) as Mr Solih's government proceeds with its planned fiscal retrenchment measures. This will also have a negative impact on economic growth. The previous administration, under Mr Yameen, undertook several infrastructure projects funded by Chinese loans. The incumbent government is making an effort to scale down these projects, which will weaken investment and constrain real GDP growth during the forecast period. Nevertheless, tourist arrivals from India and other markets (mainly European countries) will provide some support for real GDP growth. Overall, we expect economic growth to average 4.5% a year in 2019-20.