Based partly on the latest fiscal data from the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA, the central bank), we estimate a fiscal deficit equivalent to 4% of GDP in 2018, owing largely to a pick-up in spending compared with the previous year. The fiscal balance is likely to remain in deficit over 2019-20, but the shortfall will shrink gradually, reaching 3.2% of GDP in 2020. The continued deficit will partly reflect a more transparent accounting of the country's fiscal liabilities, but also the increased burden of external debt repayment associated with the Maldives' infrastructure spending boom under Mr Yameen.