Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) was elected as president of the country in November 2018. This completed a transfer of power that was notably smooth, given the country's recent volatile political history. Democratic institutions and accountability suffered under the long and autocratic presidency of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, which lasted for three decades between 1978 and 2008. The subsequent presidency of the MDP's Mohamed Nasheed was ended prematurely in 2012 amid protests, with Mr Nasheed alleging that he was forced from office at gunpoint. The tenure of the most recent president, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), saw further instability. Mr Yameen (who is also the half-brother of Mr Gayoom) cracked down on his political opponents and clashed with other senior politicians, most notably his vice-president, Ahmed Adeeb, who was removed through a no-confidence motion during a state of emergency in 2015.

During the forecast period, the risk remains that Mr Yameen or Mr Gayoom could seek to oust the MDP president, using their support networks in the security forces or the courts. (Mr Gayoom was arrested during Mr Yameen's time in office on charges of trying to overthrow the administration; he was freed on bail after Mr Solih won the presidential election.) The country's economic position became more fragile during Mr Yameen's presidency. Efforts by the present administration to put it back on a more sustainable track could create the sort of social conditions conducive to protests that would provide an excuse for an intervention seeking to remove the government.

Following the legislative election in April 2019 Mr Solih's MDP has emerged as the single largest party in the People's Majlis (the legislature), unseating the PPM, which now has a greatly reduced representation. The MDP's emphatic victory and huge majority in the Majlis will give the government a free hand to push its policy agenda through parliament.

However, the rise of the MDP in parliament has also come at the expense of the Jumhooree Party (JP, the country's third-largest party and a key member of the ruling coalition), which has lost several of its seats. This puts the future of the coalition in jeopardy. Although Mr Solih has said that the coalition will remain in place, our core expectation is that it will fall apart within our forecast period (2019-20).

The JP is now more likely to join hands with the PPM in opposition than to accept a diminished role in the coalition with the MDP. The MDP would also prefer to see the JP leave the government rather than have to make concessions to it under the coalition agreement between the two parties (the JP holds a relatively insignificant five seats). The MDP now has more than enough seats to pass legislation in the Majlis, and does not need to rely on any other party for support. Any breakdown of the coalition will therefore not have a significant impact on the stability of the government.

Although the MDP's control of the presidency and the legislature will aid political effectiveness, Mr Solih may face challenges from within his own party. The president is thought to have a good relationship with Mr Nasheed, who returned to the Maldives from exile in November 2018 and was subsequently elected to parliament. However, the former president is unlikely to be comfortable accepting a secondary role in the government, and the risk of clashes between Mr Nasheed and Mr Solih will be high.

This risk was elevated in late May, when Mr Nasheed was appointed as speaker of the Majlis. Intra-party tensions had arisen from a disagreement between Mr Nasheed and Mr Solih over their preferred candidates for the job. Finally, to avert a potential crisis, Mr Nasheed was persuaded to forward his own candidacy for the post. Nonetheless, we still believe that political stability will be enhanced in the absence of any formidable opposition to the ruling MDP, although the danger of factional splits within the party will remain a risk throughout the forecast period.

Outside of the political sphere, there is a risk that Islamic militancy could lead to violence in the Maldives. A strict strain of Wahhabism is followed by many in the country, and dozens of residents are thought to have joined militant Islamic groups overseas in the last 20 years. There have been a number of incidents that have blended political and religious-based violence in recent years, including the killing of a liberal blogger, Yameen Rasheed, in 2017. The islands' many tourist resorts could prove to be vulnerable targets for Islamic terrorists if the security forces are unable to contain these threats at an early stage.