Update Country Report Curaçao 28 Feb 2019

Event

The regime headed by Nicolás Maduro succeeded in violently stopping most humanitarian aid from entering Venezuela via Colombia and Brazil on February 23rd. Responses from the international community have showcased the divisions across those opposing the government of Mr Maduro.

Analysis

On February 24th pro-regime paramilitaries and security forces attacked convoys carrying aid. At the time of writing, the reported death toll varies between five and over 20. The regime had warned that it considered the opposition-co-ordinated aid efforts an "invasion", and that it would repel them.

The violent outcome is not, thus, surprising. To some extent, the opposition may have expected the violent repression to spark an international incident, further damaging the regime's international image and potentially yielding some sort of international action against the regime. However, this is yet to happen.

Juan Guaidó, the leader of the opposition and self-appointed interim president, personally travelled to Colombia to meet with the Lima Group, a regional alliance of anti-Maduro governments. Mr Guaidó once again secured the recognition of the Lima Group as legitimate president, but crucially the group also declared itself against the use of force, calling again for a peaceful transition. This sentiment was echoed by Caribbean nations (most notably the Carribean Community and the Dominican Republic, where the last failed opposition-regime talks took place) and some European nations (most notably Spain). On the other side of the divide is the US, which continues to tout "military action" as a viable alternative. The US called for a meeting of the UN Security Council on February 26th, where most speakers were flatly against such military action. The US has called for another UN meeting for February 28th.

Mr Guaidó is now outside of Venezuela and will meet the Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, on February 28th. He hopes to turn Brazil's opinion around after the vice-president, Hamilton Mourão, rejected the possibility of military action. Mr Guaidó has stated that he plans on returning to Venezuela, where he is at risk of arrest, as he was banned by the regime from leaving the country. This may provide a new flashpoint in the coming days,

Impact on the forecast

The regime benefits from the lack of a co-ordinated external opposition, especially relative to the co-ordination and support for Mr Guaidó exhibited up to February 23rd. We retain our forecast of regime pragmatists and the opposition forming a transitional administration, but recognise the significant risks of other scenarios.