Update Country Report Curaçao 11 Mar 2019

The Caribbean is one of the most murder-ridden regions in the world, according to 2018 murder-rates data reported by the main islands. This reflects a long-running upward trend in murder and violent crime, often linked to drug-trafficking and gang crime, as well as high levels of impunity. The Caribbean governments have adopted various tactics to counter high crime rates, ranging from hardline security crackdowns to more preventative and rehabilitative measures. However, ongoing fiscal constraints in many islands will continue to hinder efforts to improve security.

Jamaica experienced the highest murder rate in the region in 2018, with 47 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. This rate was among the highest in the world outside of war zones. Even so, this rate represented a 22% decline relative to 2017, one of the country's deadliest years. Jamaica, in particular, has long suffered from a high murder rate. This is particularly concentrated in urban areas and linked to the country's large and well-armed street gangs, which control their own territories. As well as extortion and crime, these gangs are also connected to international drug-trafficking organisations, both in terms of onward distribution out of the Caribbean and locally on the island.

The government made sustained efforts to reduce violent crime in 2018, including the creation of Zones of Special Operation, where the military are allowed to assist the police in security operations. This blanket security presence tactic appears to have worked, deterring some crime and also facilitating the arrest of several major drug figures. However, the government may struggle to maintain this momentum in 2019 as the gangs react to displacement, potentially setting up operations in new areas. The government's strategy is particularly focused on ensuring that tourist areas remain relatively secure, in order to protect the important tourism industry, which may constrain the ability of the security forces to secure and hold territory in other areas.

Mixed performance across the region

The Bahamas, a popular destination for US and European tourists, had the third-highest murder rate in the region, at 40 murders per 100,000 population. Trinidad and Tobago was close behind, with 37.5 murders per 100,000.

Unlike in Jamaica, the trend is worsening in Trinidad, with 2018 being the most violent year on record bar 2008. This in part owes to the worsening economic and political crisis in neighbouring Venezuela, with Trinidad lying just 11 km off the Venezuelan coast at its closest point. With the worsening of that country's crisis, drug-trafficking activity has increased, including transportation through Trinidad. However, the majority of that territory's violence is concentrated in the main urban areas of Trinidad, while the smaller island of Tobago (where most tourist resorts in the country are located) is generally safer.

The security forces have mounted repeated efforts to crack down on the criminal gangs operating across the country. These have included targeted operations to arrest gang leaders, as well as a blanket security presence in specified areas, supported by tougher legislation on violent crime and gang membership. However, these initiatives have resulted in only temporary improvements in security, with the gangs either moving to new areas or simply moving back in once the security presence is relaxed.

As with Jamaica, the security forces in Trinidad and Tobago have limited capacity to sustain a lengthy crackdown, and gangs are becoming used to the pattern of crackdown and subsequent withdrawal, allowing them to adapt their operations accordingly. Moreover, the impunity rate is relatively high, meaning that the tougher legislation provides only a limited deterrent for criminals. A slow judicial system and a lack of success in converting arrests into prosecutions mean that gang members arrested during crackdowns are frequently released without charge within a matter of days.

Out of the other Caribbean countries that have reported murder rates for 2018, the Dominican Republic has the lowest rate, at 10.4 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. This will come as good news to the government, given the importance of tourism to the country. The government will hope that mounting political unrest in neighbouring Haiti does not spill over into the Dominican Republic in the form of rising petty and violent crime.

Overall trend appears to be rising crime levels

Although many other Caribbean countries and territories do not regularly release murder-rate data, there is clearly a trend towards high murder rates in the largest economies. As well as drug-trafficking, a key driver for this is a lack of economic development, with many economies remaining over-dependent on tourism and financial services. Despite ongoing efforts to diversify, this is unlikely to shift significantly in 2019, maintaining pressure on reducing crime rates.

In addition, weaker expected economic growth in key tourist source markets in North America and Europe in 2019 is likely to weigh on the Caribbean tourism sector, reducing security force funding and encouraging more people to engage in criminal activity. This trend will be exacerbated by ongoing international pressure to clean up the region's opaque financial sectors, which will reduce money flows into these countries and weigh on overall revenues. Furthermore, the crisis in Venezuela is likely to continue to be a source of instability in the Caribbean basin. As such, the drivers behind violent crime will remain the same in 2019, maintaining pressure on governments to improve the situation, but without the prospect of greater funding with which to do so. We therefore expect no significant reduction in crime in 2019-20; rather, we expect crime and homicide rates to worsen.