Update Country Report Curaçao 22 Feb 2017

A report produced by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has revealed the high cost of crime in the Caribbean. The worst affected of seven Caribbean countries included in the study is the Bahamas, with public and private spending to combat crime costing 5% of GDP per year. The report highlighted the fact that a disproportionate amount of the high level of anti-crime spending goes towards policing, leaving judiciaries and preventative initiatives drastically under-equipped.

The average murder rate in the Caribbean was 16 per 100,000 population in 2014, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), significantly higher than the global average of 6.2. But although levels of murders and violent crime are relatively high across the region, the average figure belies the successes and failures of individual countries. The murder rate in Suriname, for example, which hovers close to the global average, pulls the regional average well down from the levels seen in the worst-affected countries-Jamaica, the Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago-which in recent years have recorded rates of between 30 and 50 homicides per 100,000 people.

High numbers of police a regional characteristic, but not necessarily a solution

Looking to combat high levels of crime, many Caribbean countries have turned to high numbers of police personnel as a solution. The number of police personnel in Jamaica, the Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, and Barbados, for example, ranges from 423.8 per 100,000 population in Jamaica to 846.1 in the Bahamas, compared with a global average of 365.5. The IDB reports relatively high perceptions of police effectiveness as one reason behind this, and certainly in some countries a public preference for "tough policing" has to some extent driven the crime-fighting agenda.

According to the IDB this tactic is not necessarily an effective one. Clearance rates-the number of crimes that lead to arrests-are generally low, with only 51% of homicides cleared in the Bahamas in 2013, 41% in Jamaica and 13% in Trinidad and Tobago. This is a relatively recent phenomenon that follows an upshot in violent crime seen since 2000. (The clearance rate in Trinidad and Tobago, for example, declined from 64.8% in 1990-99 to 13% by 2013.)

A shift towards more violent crime-driven partly by many Caribbean countries' involvement in the international drugs trade-is one reason behind this reduced effectiveness. But so too is a lack of organisational capacity to form a sufficient response, with expenditure on judicial systems and crime prevention far outweighed by expenditure on policing; the IDB estimates that the Bahamas, Jamaica and Barbados spend around 0.06% of GDP on justice administration, compared with more than 2% of GDP, in the case of Jamaica, on policing. Consequently, on the one hand not enough can be done to reduce the level of criminal activity in the first place, while on the other hand, delays, bottlenecks and low conviction rates prevent judiciaries from effectively handling those cases that are cleared by police investigations.

A further consequence is overcrowding in prisons, with an average of 40% of prisoners awaiting trial and prisons in many countries close to, or exceeding, capacity. Trinidad & Tobago, for example, has nine prisons, capable in total of housing over 4,000 prisoners, yet occupancy levels reached 118.5% in 2013.

New approaches suggest improvements-but short-term pressures hold back progress

In 2013 the president of the Dominican Republic, Danilo Medina, launched a major national plan to combat violent crime and improve the efficiency of the police force and justice system, with a dual focus on prevention and prosecution. Among the measures included in the plan were an integrated 911 emergency system, an initiative to better register and control the use of handguns, a road safety component, and a programme to prevent violence and delinquency.

As part of the plan, a major reform of the country's police force aimed to reduce corruption and inefficiency, while also acknowledging that the "tough policing" style seen in many Caribbean nations may be detrimental to long-term objectives. Accusations of brutality have been levelled at police in various countries, with direct consequences: ahead of the Dominican police reform, Amnesty International estimated that police were responsible for 15% of violent deaths in the country in 2005-10.

Despite sluggishness in implementing some elements of the Dominican plan, its measures helped to cut the number of murders by 8% in 2015 (to 16.8 per 100,000 people, down from 18.3 in 2014) and by a further 6% in January-September 2016.

In the Bahamas a 26% decline in serious crime in 2016 was attributed to a new policing strategy that focused on protecting the tourism industry, efficiently managing resources, working with young people and reducing fear of crime. In addition, improvements in the justice system (part of an IDB-backed initiative) seem to have had an impact, with a downward trend in bail applications for serious crime reported since 2012, alongside a doubling of conviction rates.

That said, a recent spate of violent crime in the Bahamas (there were 27 murders between January 1st and February 14th, implying a year-on-year rise of 69%) demonstrates the difficulty of sustaining long-term efforts in the face of short-term challenges. Comparing the current situation to the "wild west", the prime minister, Perry Christie, has announced a significant increase in the numbers of police officers patrolling the streets. Facing an election in the coming months, Mr Christie will be keenly feeling the need to bring a key issue for voters under control in the short term.

Fiscal pressures and drug-trafficking hinder progress

Similar challenges face many Caribbean nations. A recent report by the Puerto Rico police force indicated that there are 545 drug-selling points around the island, equivalent to one every 6.3 sq miles. In addition to retail drug traffic, Puerto Rico's geographical location-as with many Caribbean islands- has turned it into a drugs transshipment point, which makes bringing down crime rates particularly challenging. Puerto Rico is also similar to other Caribbean islands affected by violent crime in that it faces major fiscal difficulties, further hindering the government's ability to launch major initiatives or reform.

The drugs trade, combined with the triple effect of high unemployment, inequality and poverty, will continue to fuel criminal activity across the region. With the situation as it is, broader economic solutions will be needed to target the underlying social conditions that allow violent crime to thrive. Faced with immediate fiscal difficulties or the pressures of an electoral cycle, leaders will somehow have to look further ahead when developing solutions to high levels of violent crime.