Update Country Report Curaçao 13 Dec 2016

Event

Two months after both islands held elections, the new governments of Curaçao and Sint Maarten have yet to set up their new cabinets, although the ministries have been assigned to the parties in each coalition.

Analysis

Curaçao held elections on October 5th (the polls were originally scheduled for September 30th, but were postponed for a few days as a result of Hurricane Matthew). The Partido MAN (MAN) won the election but, with only four seats in the 21-seat Staten (parliament), was forced to establish a coalition government with three other parties. The MAN, led by the new prime minister, Hensley Koeiman, has finalised its appointees for the ministries that it will control. These include Kenneth Gijsbertha as minister of finance, and Elsa Rozendal as minister of education, science, culture and sports. Mr Koeiman will also act as minister of general affairs and minister of foreign relations.

Of the remaining positions, Pueblo Soberano has been awarded the ministry of administration, planning and services, as well as the ministry of social development, labour and welfare. The Partido Antía Restruktur has been given the ministry of economic development, along with the ministry of health, environment and nature. Finally, the Partido Nashonal di Pueblo takes the ministry of justice, and the ministry of traffic, transport and special planning.

Sint Maarten held elections on September 26th. The ruling National Alliance (NA) and the opposition United People's party (UP) each won five seats in the 15-seat Staten. Although the UP narrowly edged out the NA in the popular vote, it was agreed to set up a coalition government between the two parties, with the NA's William Marlin remaining prime minister (as well as minister of general affairs).

The two parties have not yet agreed who will lead each of the six ministries, although each will be allocated three. The NA will be in charge of the ministry of education, culture, youth and sports; the ministry of housing, planning and the environment; and the ministry of finance. The UP will receive the ministry of justice; the ministry of healthcare, social development and labour; and the ministry of tourism, economic affairs, transport and telecommunications.

Impact on the forecast

Despite the delays, we expect formal announcements of cabinet members within the next few weeks. The main risk to political stability remains the withdrawal of any party from either of the coalitions as this would eliminate their majorities and result in hung parliaments.