Update Country Report Curaçao 01 Feb 2016

Event

Curaçao's next parliamentary election-only the second since the 2010 dissolution of the Netherlands Antilles-is likely take place in October, the latest possible point at which it can be held.

Analysis

Although a date has yet to be announced for the election of the 21-seat parliament, the new government, led by the prime minister, Ben Whiteman of the Pueblo Sobrerano (PS) party, will want to maximise its time in office following the collapse of the government of Ivar Asjes (2013-15) in August. Although Mr Asjes's resignation was unanticipated, it followed a climate of deep discord stemming from the creation of his one-seat majority coalition in June 2013. A lack of support for his leadership within the PS-which is still reeling from the 2013 assassination of the party's co-founder, Helmin Wiels-created an unstable governing environment. Support for Mr Asjes from the two smaller coalition parties, the Partido Nashonal di Pueblo (PNP) and the Partido pa Adelanto i Inovashon Soshal (PAIS), was also lacking. Mr Asjes has since said that he will contest the 2016 elections under the banner of his own party, the recently formed Speransa pa un Miho Kòrsou (SMK). Following Mr Asjes's resignation, Mr Whiteman was able to form a coalition with members of the PNP, PAIS, the previously opposition Partido Antiá Restrukturá (PAR) and one independent. Although we expect his government to remain in office until the completion of the four-year governing cycle-elections by law must be held by October and three months' notice must be given-Curaçao's fractious legislative environment will ensure that little substantive progress is made on policy matters this year. The aforementioned parties, along with the Movementu Futuro Kòrsou (MFK), led by former prime minister, Gerrit Schotte (2010-12), are all expected to contest the election. However, MFK's prospects are complicated by Mr Schotte's ongoing criminal trial over allegations of money-laundering.

Impact on the forecast

We retain our forecast that no one party will win an outright majority, resulting in another protracted process of forming a stable parliamentary coalition.