Update Country Report Curaçao 25 Feb 2016

Event

Growth in tourist arrivals to the Caribbean far exceeded global rates in 2015, according to figures released by the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO).

Analysis

International visits to the region grew by 7%, reaching almost 29m in the year. This was higher than earlier anticipated growth of 4-5%. Growth was recorded in arrivals from all major markets, including the US, Canada, Europe, the Caribbean and South America. Visitors spent an estimated total of US$30bn, a 4.2% increase from the US$28.8bn spent in 2014. The CTO also announced that there was growth in the cruise sector, although passenger arrivals grew at a slower pace of 1.3%.

Visitors from the US market, which accounts for around half of all tourist arrivals, grew by 6.3%, to 14.3m. Arrivals from Canada grew by 4.5%, to 3.4m, those from Europe grew by 4.2%, to 5.2m, and those from South America increased by 18.3%, to 2.1m. Notably, over 20% of European arrivals came from the UK, with its 1.1m visitors representing a healthy 10.4% rise on 2014 levels. The Jamaica Tourist Board announced a record 12% increase in arrivals from the UK and Ireland, and attributed growth in the UK market to the continued strength of the pound, a fall in fuel surcharges and growth in the UK economy.

Top performers in the region were Barbados, Curaçao, and Trinidad and Tobago. The Dominican Republic, the region's largest tourist market, saw arrivals grow by 7.5%, reaching 5.6m.

Although external conditions continue to look generally positive for the Caribbean tourism industry, the spread of the Zika virus across the region has the potential to impair growth. According to the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), ongoing transmission of Zika has so far been reported in 12 Caribbean countries, including Aruba, Barbados, Curaçao, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Puerto Rico.

Zika was a key item on the agenda of a meeting of the 15-member Caribbean Community (Caricom) held on February 16th-17th. Caricom leaders agreed to a course of action that will include public education and measures at locations including entry ports, healthcare facilities, schools, hotels and factories. Despite concern over the effects of the virus, the CTO expects arrivals growth of 4.5-5.5% in 2016.

Impact on the forecast

We will continue to monitor the development of the Zika outbreak closely over the coming months, to judge its probable impact on the otherwise positive growth outlook for Caribbean tourism in 2016.