The prime minister, Gilmar Pisas of the Movementu Futuro Kòrsou (MFK), will benefit from political stability over EIU's 2023-24 forecast period. The MFK has formed a coalition government with the Partido Nashonal di Pueblo (PNP); together, the parties hold 13 out of the 21 seats in the Staten (the unicameral parliament). Given that the previous government-a coalition between the centrist Partido Alternativa Real (PAR) and the centre-left Partido MAN (MAN)-held just 11 seats, there will be fewer risks to governability for the Pisas government than for the previous administration, which had difficulties advancing its policy agenda. Cross-party differences relating to the Dutch government's influence over Curaçao's internal affairs and economic policy (especially regarding fiscal support during the covid-19 pandemic) will remain, but the government's strong legislative position will allow it to pursue its policy agenda relatively easily. Its priorities will be to develop the tourism sector and generate employment.

The conditions of Dutch-led oversight and governance structures have proven extremely contentious in Curaçao. Before the 2021 election the MFK claimed that winning would give it a stronger mandate in future negotiations with the Netherlands, having run on a platform that strongly opposed Dutch-imposed fiscal austerity. In particular, it criticised the scale of Dutch influence over the island's fiscal and economic matters and advocated for reducing the island's dependence on Dutch financing. In April the Staten unanimously voted for the government to continue to renegotiate the terms of an agreement that was signed under the previous administration to create the Caribbean Body for Reform and Development (COHO, a fiscal oversight body). In September the governments of Curaçao, Aruba and Sint Maarten submitted to the Netherlands an alternative proposal for the establishment of the body; the Dutch government is currently studying the proposal. In particular, Curaçao, Aruba and Sint Maarten are concerned that the COHO agreement as proposed by the Netherlands will constrain their autonomy. Despite its ambitions to reduce Curaçao's dependence on the Netherlands, we do not expect the Pisas administration to be able to wean the island off Dutch financing, given that it has few alternative sources of funding. Nor do we expect the government to be able to overturn the main condition of Dutch support, namely the adoption of austerity measures to enable fiscal consolidation. Downside risks to political stability and governability include civil unrest and strikes in response to austerity measures (as seen in June 2020), which would also undermine the island's economic recovery.